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chris hanretty benjamin lauderdale nick vivyan logo this caption should not appear 2017 uk parliamentary election forecast chris hanretty, university of east anglia (building on work by) benjamin lauderdale, london school of economics nick vivyan, durham university our model combines data provided by the british election study with all publicly released national polls, historical election results, and historical polling. to read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow election4castuk on twitter . if you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at [email protected] tables seats (uk) party lo seats hi swing conservatives 318 366 412 36 labour 162 207 257 -25 liberal democrats 2 7 14 -1 snp 35 46 54 -10 plaid cymru 1 3 4 0 greens 0 1 2 0 ukip 0 1 5 0 other 1 1 1 0 votes (gb) party lo votes hi swing conservatives 38.6% 43.8% 49.0% 6.2% labour 28.0% 33.1% 38.1% 2.0% liberal democrats 4.3% 8.6% 12.8% 0.5% snp 3.5% 4.1% 4.7% -0.8% plaid cymru 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 0.1% greens 0.0% 2.2% 6.0% -1.7% ukip 2.5% 6.9% 11.5% -6.0% other 0.0% 1.1% 4.8% 0.1% majority scenario probability conservative majority 0.95 hung parliament 0.05 labour majority 0.00 will any party have 326 or more seats? plurality scenario probability conservative plurality 1.00 labour plurality 0.00 which party will have the most seats? figures map why do these individual seat predictions not exactly match the aggregate seat predictions shown above? cartogram current polls our pooled summary of gb polling, starting one year before the election. body summary our current prediction is that there will be a majority for the conservatives, who will have 366 seats. the sidebar at the right includes predicted probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 95% uncertainty intervals. this forecast was last updated thursday 08 jun 2017. and now the party forecast... conservatives. seat gain almost certain. majority almost certain. plurality almost certain. labour. seat loss very likely. majority very unlikely. plurality very unlikely. liberal democrats. seat loss probable. snp. seat loss almost certain. plaid cymru. seat loss possible. greens. seat loss possible. ukip. seat loss moderately unlikely. seat predictions (gb) when reading our seat predictions, please keep in mind that our model may not know as much about your specific seat of interest as you do. the model knows how the general patterns of support across the uk have changed in constituencies with different kinds of political, geographic and demographic characteristics. in particular, the model does not know whether your mp is beloved by constituents or embroiled in scandal, nor what the implications of that might be. some of this might be picked up in the polls, but not all of it will be, and we do not have much polling data to go on when it comes to constituencies. in the aggregate, these aspects of constituency-specific competition tend to average out across parties, but they certainly matter in individual constituencies. think of our seat-level projections as a baseline for what you might expect from past election results, geography and demography, plus a little bit of polling data. sortable table of predicted vote share for every party in every seat. sortable table of 95% prediction intervals for vote share for every party in every seat. sortable table of predicted probability of victory for every party in every seat. the following tables focuses on potential seat gains and losses for each of the parties, including only those seats for which the probability of a change of control is estimated at over 10%. if the table is blank, there are currently no such seats. conservatives: gains losses labour: gains losses liberal democrats: gains losses snp: gains losses plaid cymru: gains losses greens: gains losses ukip: gains losses the following table provides the individual seat predictions, aggregated up to england, scotland and wales. please note that these may not exactly match the totals in the main forecast table, as they are based on the individual seat forecasts. . con lab ld snp pc grn ukip oth england 356 175 0 0 0 1 0 1 scotland 6 1 1 51 0 0 0 0 wales 6 30 1 0 3 0 0 0 the following table provides the individual seat predictions (columns), aggregated by the party that won the seat at the 2010 general election (rows). please note that these may not exactly match the totals in the main forecast table, as they are based on the individual seat forecasts. . con lab ld snp pc grn ukip oth 2015 con 323 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 2015 lab 35 197 0 0 0 0 0 0 2015 ld 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 2015 snp 5 0 0 51 0 0 0 0 2015 pc 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 2015 grn 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2015 ukip 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2015 oth 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 faq frequently asked questions who are you? were you wrong in 2015? will you be wrong again? what information do you use in this forecast? why do the forecasts change so slowly? if you are wrong, how are you most likely to be wrong? what does it mean when you say a party has a 95% chance of between x and y seats? why is there so much uncertainty in your forecasts? what about northern ireland? what about wales? how many seats is a majority? what are the the "house effects" for the pollsters? why do your individual seat predictions not add up to your aggregate seat predictions? why do you only use historical data back to 1979? what do statements like "moderately unlikely" mean? what software do you use? how did you choose these lovely/garish website colours? do you have any conflicts of interest? do you have any acknowledgements? who are you? is run by chris hanretty from the university of east anglia, ben lauderdale at the lse, and nick vivyan at durham university. chris hanretty is responsible for the 2017 forecasts. were you wrong in 2015? in 2015 we predicted that the conservatives would be the largest party, but we categorically ruled out a conservative majority. you can see what our 2015 forecast looked like here . it's hard for probabilistic forecasts to be wrong -- but if you say that the probability of something happening is close to zero, and it happens, then you're wrong. will you be wrong again? we've learnt from what went wrong in 2015. some of the modelling choices that we've made reflect things that went wrong in that election. hopefully in this election we'll do better than we did in the last election. but if the polls in 2017 are as wrong as they were in 2015 (or in 1992), then our forecasts will also be inaccurate. what information do you use in this forecast? this forecast is based on several different sources of information. these include past election results , current and historic national polling , individual polling , and information about constituencies . past election results we use information on election results from 1979 onwards to help us model the outcome of the 2017 election. this information is useful in two ways. first, it helps us set bounds on likely outcomes. the conservative party is unlikely to get less than 10% of the vote, or more than 60% of the vote. second, past election results help us calibrate the relationship between polls and the outcome. if we know how informative polling was in previous elections, that helps us when we using current polling to predict this year's elections. current aggregate polling many pollsters poll gb voting intention continuously, whether there is an election soon or not. you can see lists of polls on uk polling report or wikipedia . if all polling companies produced a poll every day with the same methods and the same sample size, we could take a simple average of these polls, and use this as our best guess of the true support for each party. unfortunately, polls are carried out using different methods by different companies at varying intervals and with smaller or larger samples. we therefore pool the polls to get an estimate of relative party support across great britain for every day duri

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http://www.electionforecast.co.uk//#whatsamajority
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk//#probabilitystatements
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